Trials Podium Training Thoughts...

Michael O'Leary 

Thoughts overall: 
-No major injuries. *Knock on wood*. This has become a "who's the best of the best" instead of who can survive the bullshit.
-I love that girls are all in National Team Leos.
-The USA is deeeeeeeeep. I'm so glad.

On individual gymnasts: (in no particular order whatsoever.)

Elizabeth Price has given me second thoughts on calling all Parkettes "skill chuckers". That Amanar is fierce as is the Double Double. She'll be a great alternate.

The videos of Sarah Finnegan weren't particularly impressive to me, but maybe that's because I've watched her routines so many times. I'm interested to see how she'll compete. She's another potentially great alternate.

Sabrina Vega's gymnastics is just so pretty. I wish we could give her Aly Raisman's consistency & difficulty.

I can't get over Rebecca Bross's feet. Still. I love her natural swing though. She did land her Patterson in training, but I'm not holding my breath for a clean dismount in competition. I STILL think that it's too much of a risk for a Team Final.

Gabrielle Douglas looks fierce as ever, but her ankle looks super taped. Was it that taped at Nationals? The slowmo Amanar is not to be missed.

Nastia looks about 0% more ready than she did at Nationals podium training. If it's the Olympic Trials and you can't do a full bar routine with out an enormous amount of spotting, I'm doubting you. (The ring leap was better, though.)

McKayla is impressing me. People were worried that she wouldn't compete at Trials but she looks as good as she did at Nationals, if not better.

Anna Li's bars are fantastic, but I can't imagine Marta taking someone who literally can only go up on one event, no matter what.

Kyla's Amanar is back and looks decent. I wonder if she'll compete it and if she does if she can compete it consistently. Bars & Beam are as solid as usual. I only put her floor on for 4 seconds to see if she had changed music. ... She hadn't.

Aly Raisman is proving herself as more and more of a lock. Honey child does not fall. You can't hate that.

USA Gymnastics

Jordyn Wieber might as well not even compete. She'll be in London unless her arm falls off... and even then she could probably pull off beam. There's honestly not much to say about her at this point. She's solid, but I'm honestly kind of bored, in a Pattersonian way.

Brenna Dowell looks sad throughout. I'm waiting for her to call the news and do an Ivana Hong like news story. You remember she has a broken hand, right? She looks like she's adding a wolf jump after her front double pike though. So that's fun.

Bridget Sloan is being spotted quite a bit on bars, and USAG didn't post a full routine from her. But then again, it was similar in at Nationals, and she performed satisfactorily there.

USAG only posted Alicia Sacramone's beam which looked clean, but I'm more interested in her Vault.  I can't see a FTY as her second vault being a strong enough case for her.

Kennedy Baker wasn't in podium training today, so that was kind of a bummer. She arrived in San Jose late Tuesday evening.

Aly Raisman & McKayla Maroney 2012 UB Olympic Champions?!

In the past 24 hours, I've read the following things from gymnastics fans or bloggers: 
-"Aly is great on bars and beam!"
-"[Kyla's] strongest events : Floor and Vault."
-"Maroney should be great on bars."
-A tweeter putting Nastia in her Olympic floor lineup

I'm starting to get frustrated, friends. So, instead of screaming and banging my head against the wall, I've decided I'll attempt to help clear up whatever confusion is going on.

Some of the following post is my opinion, but let's talk facts for a second. Aly is NOT great on bars, Kyla is NOT strongest on floor and Maroney will NOT be great on bars. Those are just facts! The US is looking for the 3 highest scorers on each event. I'm sharing with you the highest scores on each event for each Trials qualifiers, although that doesn't take consistency into account.

VAULT- 
To be honest, competing on vault for the US in team finals isn't much of an option unless you've got an Amanar or a Rudi.

Girls whose vaults are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Maroney, Wieber & Raisman.

Girls whose vaults MAY be team finals worthy: Douglas, Price, Ross & Sacramone.

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers.
1. Maroney - 16.15  (Nationals Day 1)
2T. Wieber - 16.1 (American Cup)
2T. Raisman - 16.1 (American Cup)
4. Douglas - 15.866 (American Cup)
5. Price - 15.8 (Nationals Day 1)
6. Ross - 15.55 (Jesolo)
7. Sacramone - 15.5 (Nationals Day 2)
8. Finnegan - 15.0 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Baker - 14.8 (Nationals Day 2)
10. Dowell - 14.7 (Nationals Day 2)
11. Vega - 14.5 (Nationals Day 2)
12. Sloan - 14.15 (Nationals Day 2)
Liukin, Li, Bross no longer compete Vault.

BARS- 
Bars is trickier, because fewer of the team "locks" are super strong on bars.


Girls whose bars are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Dougals, Li, Ross, Bross & Sloan.

Girls whose bars MAY be team finals worthy: Wieber, Price & Liukin (if Nastia can show what people are expecting her to). 

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Douglas - 15.85 (Nationals Day 2)
2. Li - 15.55 (Nationals Day 2)
3. Ross - 15.5 (Nationals Day 1)
4. Bross - 15.3 (US Classic)
5. Sloan - 15.1(Nationals Day 1)
6. Wieber - 15.05 (Nationals Day 1)
7. Price - 14.95 (Nationals Day 1)
8. Baker - 14.85 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Dowell - 14.6 (Jesolo)
10. Raisman - 14.45 (Jesolo)
11. Vega - 14.4 (Nationals Day 2)
12. Finnegan - 14.15 (Jesolo)
13. Maroney - 13.95 (Jesolo)
14. Liukin - 13.65 (Nationals Day 2)
Sacramone does not compete this event.

BEAM 
The US is looking stronger and stronger on beam and should have plenty of coverage on that event, regardless of who is on the team.

Girls whose beam sets are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Ross, Raisman & Finnegan.

Girls whose beam sets MAY be team finals worthy: Wieber (her high is MUCH higher than her average), Sacramone, Liukin.

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Wieber -  15.7 (Pac Rim AA)

2. Ross - 15.5 (Jesolo)

3. Raisman - 15.45 (Nationals Day 2) 

4. Finnegan - 15.35 (Nationals Day 1) 

5. Sacramone - 15.2 (Nationals Day 1) 

6T. Liukin - 15.1 (Nationals Day 1)

6T. Douglas - 15.1 (American Cup)

8. Maroney - 14.55 (Nationals Day 1)

9. Vega - 14.4 (Nationals Day 2) 

10. Baker - 14.3 (US Classic) 

11. Price - 14.3 (Nationals Day 1) 

12. Bross - 14.15 (Jesolo) 

13. Li - 13.9 (US Classic) 

14. Dowell - 13.9 (Nationals Day 2) 

15. Sloan - 13.85 (Nationals Day 2)

FLOOR

Girls whose floor routines are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Raisman, Douglas, Wieber & Finnegan.

Girls whose floor routines MAY be team finals worthy: Vega & Price. 

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Raisman - 15.8 (Nationals Day 2)
2. Douglas - 15.3 (Nationals Day 2)
3. Wieber - 15.25 (Nationals Day 1)
4. Finnegan - 15.2 (US Classic)
5. Vega - 14.85 (US Classic)
6. Price -14.8 (Nationals Day 2)
7T. Ross - 14.6 (Nationals Day 2)
7T. Maroney - 14.6 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Baker - 14.4 (Nationals Day 1)
10. Dowell - 14.35 (Nationals Day 2)
11. Sloan - 13.9 (Nationals Day 2)
Li, Bross & Liukin do NOT compete Floor anymore.

So dearest fellow fans, go back and look what you've written and then look at the facts. Are you making sense? 

Let's talk about ex(ecution), baby.

USA Gymnastics

Quick! Who do you think are the girls with the highest execution in the USA? I assumed that the "Chosen 4" would rank highly and then I thought that with only execution counting that Sarah Finnegan and Sabrina Vega would squeak into the top 5 or so. In fact, I thought that Sarah Finnegan would become a virtual lock for the team disregarding difficulty. I thought she had a good chance to place higher than Douglas. Well, I was wrong.

The Top 12 in execution only over the 2 days of competition were: (parentheses indicate place w/ D & E scores counting)

USA Gymnastics

1. Kyla Ross (4th)
2. Jordyn Wieber (1st)
3. Gabby Douglas (2nd)
4. Aly Raisman (3rd)
5. Elizabeth Price (5th)
6. McKayla Maroney (N/A)*
7. Sarah Finnegan (6th)
8. Sabrina Vega (7th Tie)
9. Brenna Dowell (9th)
10. Kennedy Baker (7th Tie)
11T. Bridget Sloan (10th)
11T.  Abigail Milliet (11th)

*I multiplied Maroney's day 1 E scores by 2 so we could see where she fits.

Places 13-18 fall in the same order that they did in competition.

Frankly, I was surprised. I started to question myself and other gymnastics fans. We love Sabrina Vega, we love Sarah Finnegan, We Well, I, love Kennedy Baker. We say that it's because they have clean gymnastics, but we're lying to ourselves. It's because they have pretty gymnastics. There's nothing wrong with liking gymnastics because it's pretty, we just need to be honest with ourselves about what's going on. It's worth mentioning that these girls fell, but even if they hadn't they wouldn't have been the leaders in execution. It's a myth that these girls would be the strongest if their difficulties were higher, as they're in the same positions or even lower. Pretty doesn't necessarily equal well executed, as much as sometimes I wish it did.

Inside Gymnastics

Other surprises included Raisman placing 12th amongst vaulters. (Maroney, not surprisingly, placed 1st), Jordyn Wieber placing higher than Anna Li on bars and Gabby placing 3rd on floor. You may not like her music, but you can't argue that she performs it well.

So difficulty aside, who would I name to my team? (Execution based ranks are in parentheses)

VT: Wieber (3), Ross (2), Maroney (1)
UB: Wieber (3), Ross (2), Douglas (1)
BB: Wieber (4), Raisman (3), Ross (1)
FX: Douglas (3), Raisman (2), Wieber (1)
Alt: Price, Sacramone, Finnegan

Who takes the 5th Spot? (Based on season averages)

It's arguable, but I personally believe that 4 of the American gymnasts have a 75% or greater shot of making the team. The three semi locks are Jordyn Wieber, Aly Raisman and Gabby Douglas. I personally believe that Kyla Ross will take the fourth spot. So that leaves the every popular question: Who takes the fifth spot?

To answer that question, I found the season averages on each event from everyone headed to Trials. To be fair, season averages may not be the best judge of who will perform the best, but I figured it would be a decent baseline. Falls ARE included in the average, so this is not an average of only hit routines. They're rounded to the hundredth's place.

The cool thing about this 4 person team is that if need be, these 4 girls could fill the 3 up, 3 count quota on each event. Here's how I'd do it.

VT : Wieber (15.85), Raisman (15.58), Douglas (15.24)
UB : Douglas (15.55), Ross (15.28), Wieber (14.85)
BB :  Ross (15.1), Raisman (15.03), Wieber (14.85)
FX : Raisman (15.34), Wieber (15.08), Douglas (14.97)

So to figure out which gymnast would fill the fifth spot, I figured out who would add the largest advantage by adding their routines instead of the lowest scoring routine(s) in the lineup above.

To my surprise, the girl who would add the largest advantage was McKayla Maroney who would increase the team average .84 if she vaulted instead of Douglas. Marta's openly said that she doesn't want to take a girl who can only help on one event, but McKayla's average is by far the most helpful to team USA.

Second is Alicia Sacramone whose average is higher than both Douglas on Vault and surprisingly, Jordyn Wieber on beam. (Jordyn's Pac Rim EF fall IS factored into this average though.) Her advantage is .53.

Elizabeth Price's was the third most helpful with her vault average adding .45 to the team total.

I was surprised that my most recent pick for #5, Sarah Finnegan's beam routine was the only helpful one (w/ a .21 advantage) and that her floor average wasn't higher than Raisman's, Douglas's or Wieber's.  Her individual floor scores have been higher than some of Gabby's though.

Bridget Sloan, Anna Li and Rebecca Bross each could help the team solely on bars, but because they've each had their share of mistakes their advantages each only average out to less than .2.

Kennedy, Sabrina, Nastia and Brenna don't have higher averages on any event than the already chosen four.

Obviously, season averages are not the end all be all of a selection process, but they do take into account both consistency and scoring potential. Who knows, Nastia, Becca or Anna could blow all of these girls out of the water at Trials, or perhaps one of my "Chosen Four" could seem unprepared for Olympic aspirations. *Knock on wood*. But, I thought it was a start to see who will take what I view as the last spot on the team.

**Pictures are all property of the USOC

Quick Nationals Wrap Up

Annnnd, it's over. Dozens of athletes have competed, National Champions have been named and 15 girls have been sent to Trials.

To be brief, here were my thoughts on the seniors:

To be not as brief, I would say that the biggest surprise amongst the competitors was most likely Gabby, who only missed the title by .2. That's pretty impressive for someone who "ended her career" at last year's Nationals. Had she not fallen on beam, she undoubtedly would have won.

The top 4 were in the order I predicted, but I was surprised at how close they came. I'm keeping my team the same as I had them after Classics (they're the girls circled in Purple), with the same alternates I picked then as well (underlined in Yellow). I'd like to see Alicia & Bridget make the team, but I'm not sure how feasible that really is.

I'm doubting the chances of Brenna Dowell at this point because she still has a broken hand. To be honest, I feel like all that making trials really means for her is that she'll spend two more weeks training and competing with an injury.

Anna Li's a fabulous gymnast but I personally feel like she performed more successfully in NCAA... but this is gymnastics. Anything can happen.

And I'm pretty sure I've said my peace on Nastia, but I'll leave you with this...

I'll post later with my thoughts on specific routines/juniors.

5 Feasible US Olympic Teams

In my mind, there are 15 girls who have any kind of shot of being on this 8 person Olympic Squad.

In my opinion, Jordyn Wieber, Aly Raisman & Gabrielle Douglas have the greatest shot  based on past results. Sarah Finnegan, McKayla Maroney and Kyla Ross all have legitimate shots at making the team, but could perhaps be left off completely. Meanwhile veterans Nastia Liukin, Becca Bross, Anna Li and Alicia Sacramone who have each had issues with injuries and consistency, may be saved by their high start values. Shawn Johnson could also fall in this category but without seeing routines this year, I'm not sure. Personally, I think that this will more than likely be a team of first time Olympians.

And then we have the girls most likely to be alternates, but who are unlikely to make the team. The "Corrie Lothrops" of 2012. Kennedy Baker, Elizabeth Price, Sabrina Vega and Brandie Jay fall here. (And possibly Brenna Dowell, if she can come back from her hand injury.) And I think they're all wonderful. May beautiful college careers be ahead of you.


In my personal opinion, these are the five most feasible teams:


1. The Post-Pac Rims

Property of AP

Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Aly Raisman (BB, FX)
Gabby Douglas (UB, FX)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB, BB)
McKayla Maroney (VT)
Alternates:  Sarah Finnegan, Sabrina Vega, Shawn Johnson

This was the team that I posted about a while back. Although I understand how many people believe that Maroney doesn't fit into the team that well, I do feel really strongly that she deserves to defend her title. I also just noticed, this team has FIVE AMANARS! WOW!

Stefan Wurzer

2. The Post-Classics
Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Aly Raisman (VT, BB, FX)
Gabby Douglas (UB)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB)
Sarah Finnegan (BB, FX)
Alternates: McKayla Maroney, Kennedy Baker, Elizabeth Price

After watching the competition on Saturday, this is my team for the moment. It gives lots of options as Gabby could potentially go up on Vault, Beam or Floor, Kyla could go up Beam and Sarah could (not ideally) go up on bars. It's a team that plans for an injury and it's a team with pretty, solid gymnastics. And don't hate on my alternates or I will cut you.

Harry Howe

3. The Reader's Choice 
Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Aly Raisman (VT, BB, FX)
McKayla Maroney (VT)
Nastia Liukin (UB)
Kyla Ross (UB, BB, FX)
Alternates: Shawn Johnson, Sabrina Vega, Gabrielle Douglas

This particular team was named 5 times in the prediction contest back in December, and actually is a pretty strong team when you think about it. The alternates for the team were the most popular alternates not named to the team. I could perhaps see this team being named if Gabby ends up underperforming and Nastia over performs. It does leave a floor hole though and I don't like the idea of have to put Kyla or Maroney up on floor.

Associated Press

4. The Gabby-less
Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Aly Raisman (VT, BB, FX)
Nastia Liukin OR Rebecca Bross (UB)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB)
Sarah Finnegan (BB, FX)
Alternates: Sabrina Vega, Elizabeth Price, Kennedy Baker

Yes, I know that the last one didn't have Gabby in it, but here's how I would do it. The Bars specialist could go to either Nastia or Becca, depending on who performs more impressively (and if Nastia legitimately gets her bars back). This would be my team if Gabrielle Douglas broke her leg or if she falls apart as time goes on. I don't think she will... but here's my plan in case it does.


5. The Aly-less

Property of GK

Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Gabby Douglas (UB, FX)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB, BB)
Sarah Finneagn (BB, FX)
McKayla Maroney (VT)
Alternates: Sabrina Vega, Elizabeth Price, Kennedy Baker

Along the same lines of the last team, this is who I would put on the team if Aly ended up injured, inconsistent or Canadian. It's nice that we're in a year where one routine could make or break (pun not intended) your team. Sure, Aly's floor scores are much better than Gabby's, but it wouldn't be catastrophic to have Gabby's in the line up.

Associated Press

(And a bonus team...)
6. The Jordyn-less
Aly Raisman (VT, BB, FX)
Gabby Douglas (VT, UB, FX)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB, BB)
Sarah Finnegan (BB, FX)
Nastia Liukin OR Rebecca Bross (UB)
Alternates: Sabrina Vega, McKayla Maroney, Elizabeth Price

I know, I know. I can hear you screaming from here. A team without Jordyn wouldn't be a good thing at all. However, in this day and age, anything can happen. Here's what I'd do in the off chance that Jordyn fell apart. (I don't mean emotionally like I did with Gabby. I mean what I'd do if her limbs literally started falling off.)

I don't see these as the only possibly teams, but in my opinion they are the most likely of the bunch. Who would be your team?

Pac Rim & Jesolo Team Selection

So in the past 24 hours, the Pac Rim & Jesolo lists were posted. While some fans were surprised by who made the list, I was more surprised by who didn't.

A few who didn't make the team make perfect sense: Mackenzie Caquatto & Jessie DeZiel are away at school, while Alicia Sacramone is recovering from that awful achilles injury. Hallie Mossett is injured and Bridget Sloan & Bridgette Caquatto (now at Texas Dreams) are rumored to be.Then there are also the girls who seem to get passed over time and time again. (Amanda Jetter being the prime example here.)

Property of Greg Long

  I'm confused about a few of the "major players" who we mysteriously haven't heard from this year.

Sabrina Vega is missing in action. She may or may not have been at camp, but she isn't headed to a meet this year after performing satisfactorily at Worlds in October.

Where is Shawn Johnson? She was definitely at camp this time around yet didn't make either team. With all due respect, how am I to believe that this girl has a shot at the team, if last year's 12th Place Junior Brianna Brown was chosen before her?

If Marta is indeed "testing the waters" with the less experienced girls, then why send Raisman & Maroney to Jesolo instead of Baker & Winston. Or Wofford for that matter. (She had a 6.3 Beam SV at Classics last year and is training MAJOR upgrades on bars).

In any case, I hope that the USA does well at these two meets.

Property of Jessica Frankl

I'm thrilled for all of the girls headed out, but particularly little Bailie Key who's headed out for her first international assignment. I am also VERY excited to see that Rebecca Bross is headed back, although I worry that it could be too soon. I sincerely hope that she stays healthy.

Maybe Marta will have Jordyn just compete Vault and Beam so that Gabby Douglas can take the Pac Rim Title. (Please?!) The six girls on the team are all powerhouses and have enormous scoring potential. While bars is their collectively weakest event, I don't really see any holes on the team at all.

Any guesses on the US Jesolo Amanar Count? There are five girls on the team who have competed an Amanar before, but it's possible that there may be even more now that we're into an Olympic Year. On a team of 14 (9 seniors & 5 Juniors), I'm not really sure what the format will be, but I do know the scores will be phenomenal.

Ahhhhh... I'm starting to get giddy about how deep the USA is right now.


... ... ... Yup, I'm back.

NCAA Commits: Class of 2013 Elites

The Class of 2013 who are currently Juniors in high school: Where are they headed? 

Claire Boyce - Florida
Gym: Texas Dreams
About: Nationals in 09-10, Back Injury in 2011. She has beautiful lines!

Briley Casanova - Michigan
Gym: WOGA
About: Former Jr. National Team Member, Great on Bars, Injury in 2011.

Amanda Jetter - Alabama 
Gym: CGA
About: A 3 time National Team Member, Perpetually injured but insanely talented.

Emma Sibson - Penn State
Gym: Zenith
About: Sibson is a strong "power gymnast" who's been an elite for 2 years now.

Morgan Smith - Michigan

Gym: Brandy Johnson's 

About: Morgan was a 3 time national team member who's a strong all arounder. She didn't compete in at Championships in 2011. (She was considered to be class of 2012, but is is now class of 2013 per her website & GymDivas.) 

What about the Elites who haven't committed?: 


Jessica Howe
Gym: WOGA
About: Qualified as an elite in 2011, competed at Championships.
Prediction: According to someone cool in the comments below, she is " fielding offers from UF, UCLA a

Sophia Lee
Gym: WOGA
About: Great on Bars, she's been an elite since '09. May have a foot injury currently.
Prediction: Utah. Maybe because she has a Corrie Lothrop quality to her, or maybe because I just have a hunch, but I can see Sophia at Utah!

Hallie Mossett
Gym: WCEG
About: She was an Alternate for the Pan Ams team, a 2 time National Team Member and a strong floor worker!
Predictions: As she's a Califonia Native, my first instinct says that Hallie would go to UCLA. She's visited along with UCLA commit Asi Peko and rumored commit DeJesus.

Sabrina Vega 
Gym: Dynamic
About: World Team Member, 4 time national team member, great lines and artistry.
Predictions: I can't picture Vega on many NCAA Teams, but I could see her at Stanford where gymnasts like Ivana Hong, Allyse Ishino and Sami Shaprio have gone.