Trials Podium Training Thoughts...

Michael O'Leary 

Thoughts overall: 
-No major injuries. *Knock on wood*. This has become a "who's the best of the best" instead of who can survive the bullshit.
-I love that girls are all in National Team Leos.
-The USA is deeeeeeeeep. I'm so glad.

On individual gymnasts: (in no particular order whatsoever.)

Elizabeth Price has given me second thoughts on calling all Parkettes "skill chuckers". That Amanar is fierce as is the Double Double. She'll be a great alternate.

The videos of Sarah Finnegan weren't particularly impressive to me, but maybe that's because I've watched her routines so many times. I'm interested to see how she'll compete. She's another potentially great alternate.

Sabrina Vega's gymnastics is just so pretty. I wish we could give her Aly Raisman's consistency & difficulty.

I can't get over Rebecca Bross's feet. Still. I love her natural swing though. She did land her Patterson in training, but I'm not holding my breath for a clean dismount in competition. I STILL think that it's too much of a risk for a Team Final.

Gabrielle Douglas looks fierce as ever, but her ankle looks super taped. Was it that taped at Nationals? The slowmo Amanar is not to be missed.

Nastia looks about 0% more ready than she did at Nationals podium training. If it's the Olympic Trials and you can't do a full bar routine with out an enormous amount of spotting, I'm doubting you. (The ring leap was better, though.)

McKayla is impressing me. People were worried that she wouldn't compete at Trials but she looks as good as she did at Nationals, if not better.

Anna Li's bars are fantastic, but I can't imagine Marta taking someone who literally can only go up on one event, no matter what.

Kyla's Amanar is back and looks decent. I wonder if she'll compete it and if she does if she can compete it consistently. Bars & Beam are as solid as usual. I only put her floor on for 4 seconds to see if she had changed music. ... She hadn't.

Aly Raisman is proving herself as more and more of a lock. Honey child does not fall. You can't hate that.

USA Gymnastics

Jordyn Wieber might as well not even compete. She'll be in London unless her arm falls off... and even then she could probably pull off beam. There's honestly not much to say about her at this point. She's solid, but I'm honestly kind of bored, in a Pattersonian way.

Brenna Dowell looks sad throughout. I'm waiting for her to call the news and do an Ivana Hong like news story. You remember she has a broken hand, right? She looks like she's adding a wolf jump after her front double pike though. So that's fun.

Bridget Sloan is being spotted quite a bit on bars, and USAG didn't post a full routine from her. But then again, it was similar in at Nationals, and she performed satisfactorily there.

USAG only posted Alicia Sacramone's beam which looked clean, but I'm more interested in her Vault.  I can't see a FTY as her second vault being a strong enough case for her.

Kennedy Baker wasn't in podium training today, so that was kind of a bummer. She arrived in San Jose late Tuesday evening.

Aly Raisman & McKayla Maroney 2012 UB Olympic Champions?!

In the past 24 hours, I've read the following things from gymnastics fans or bloggers: 
-"Aly is great on bars and beam!"
-"[Kyla's] strongest events : Floor and Vault."
-"Maroney should be great on bars."
-A tweeter putting Nastia in her Olympic floor lineup

I'm starting to get frustrated, friends. So, instead of screaming and banging my head against the wall, I've decided I'll attempt to help clear up whatever confusion is going on.

Some of the following post is my opinion, but let's talk facts for a second. Aly is NOT great on bars, Kyla is NOT strongest on floor and Maroney will NOT be great on bars. Those are just facts! The US is looking for the 3 highest scorers on each event. I'm sharing with you the highest scores on each event for each Trials qualifiers, although that doesn't take consistency into account.

VAULT- 
To be honest, competing on vault for the US in team finals isn't much of an option unless you've got an Amanar or a Rudi.

Girls whose vaults are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Maroney, Wieber & Raisman.

Girls whose vaults MAY be team finals worthy: Douglas, Price, Ross & Sacramone.

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers.
1. Maroney - 16.15  (Nationals Day 1)
2T. Wieber - 16.1 (American Cup)
2T. Raisman - 16.1 (American Cup)
4. Douglas - 15.866 (American Cup)
5. Price - 15.8 (Nationals Day 1)
6. Ross - 15.55 (Jesolo)
7. Sacramone - 15.5 (Nationals Day 2)
8. Finnegan - 15.0 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Baker - 14.8 (Nationals Day 2)
10. Dowell - 14.7 (Nationals Day 2)
11. Vega - 14.5 (Nationals Day 2)
12. Sloan - 14.15 (Nationals Day 2)
Liukin, Li, Bross no longer compete Vault.

BARS- 
Bars is trickier, because fewer of the team "locks" are super strong on bars.


Girls whose bars are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Dougals, Li, Ross, Bross & Sloan.

Girls whose bars MAY be team finals worthy: Wieber, Price & Liukin (if Nastia can show what people are expecting her to). 

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Douglas - 15.85 (Nationals Day 2)
2. Li - 15.55 (Nationals Day 2)
3. Ross - 15.5 (Nationals Day 1)
4. Bross - 15.3 (US Classic)
5. Sloan - 15.1(Nationals Day 1)
6. Wieber - 15.05 (Nationals Day 1)
7. Price - 14.95 (Nationals Day 1)
8. Baker - 14.85 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Dowell - 14.6 (Jesolo)
10. Raisman - 14.45 (Jesolo)
11. Vega - 14.4 (Nationals Day 2)
12. Finnegan - 14.15 (Jesolo)
13. Maroney - 13.95 (Jesolo)
14. Liukin - 13.65 (Nationals Day 2)
Sacramone does not compete this event.

BEAM 
The US is looking stronger and stronger on beam and should have plenty of coverage on that event, regardless of who is on the team.

Girls whose beam sets are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Ross, Raisman & Finnegan.

Girls whose beam sets MAY be team finals worthy: Wieber (her high is MUCH higher than her average), Sacramone, Liukin.

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Wieber -  15.7 (Pac Rim AA)

2. Ross - 15.5 (Jesolo)

3. Raisman - 15.45 (Nationals Day 2) 

4. Finnegan - 15.35 (Nationals Day 1) 

5. Sacramone - 15.2 (Nationals Day 1) 

6T. Liukin - 15.1 (Nationals Day 1)

6T. Douglas - 15.1 (American Cup)

8. Maroney - 14.55 (Nationals Day 1)

9. Vega - 14.4 (Nationals Day 2) 

10. Baker - 14.3 (US Classic) 

11. Price - 14.3 (Nationals Day 1) 

12. Bross - 14.15 (Jesolo) 

13. Li - 13.9 (US Classic) 

14. Dowell - 13.9 (Nationals Day 2) 

15. Sloan - 13.85 (Nationals Day 2)

FLOOR

Girls whose floor routines are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Raisman, Douglas, Wieber & Finnegan.

Girls whose floor routines MAY be team finals worthy: Vega & Price. 

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Raisman - 15.8 (Nationals Day 2)
2. Douglas - 15.3 (Nationals Day 2)
3. Wieber - 15.25 (Nationals Day 1)
4. Finnegan - 15.2 (US Classic)
5. Vega - 14.85 (US Classic)
6. Price -14.8 (Nationals Day 2)
7T. Ross - 14.6 (Nationals Day 2)
7T. Maroney - 14.6 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Baker - 14.4 (Nationals Day 1)
10. Dowell - 14.35 (Nationals Day 2)
11. Sloan - 13.9 (Nationals Day 2)
Li, Bross & Liukin do NOT compete Floor anymore.

So dearest fellow fans, go back and look what you've written and then look at the facts. Are you making sense? 

Let's talk about ex(ecution), baby.

USA Gymnastics

Quick! Who do you think are the girls with the highest execution in the USA? I assumed that the "Chosen 4" would rank highly and then I thought that with only execution counting that Sarah Finnegan and Sabrina Vega would squeak into the top 5 or so. In fact, I thought that Sarah Finnegan would become a virtual lock for the team disregarding difficulty. I thought she had a good chance to place higher than Douglas. Well, I was wrong.

The Top 12 in execution only over the 2 days of competition were: (parentheses indicate place w/ D & E scores counting)

USA Gymnastics

1. Kyla Ross (4th)
2. Jordyn Wieber (1st)
3. Gabby Douglas (2nd)
4. Aly Raisman (3rd)
5. Elizabeth Price (5th)
6. McKayla Maroney (N/A)*
7. Sarah Finnegan (6th)
8. Sabrina Vega (7th Tie)
9. Brenna Dowell (9th)
10. Kennedy Baker (7th Tie)
11T. Bridget Sloan (10th)
11T.  Abigail Milliet (11th)

*I multiplied Maroney's day 1 E scores by 2 so we could see where she fits.

Places 13-18 fall in the same order that they did in competition.

Frankly, I was surprised. I started to question myself and other gymnastics fans. We love Sabrina Vega, we love Sarah Finnegan, We Well, I, love Kennedy Baker. We say that it's because they have clean gymnastics, but we're lying to ourselves. It's because they have pretty gymnastics. There's nothing wrong with liking gymnastics because it's pretty, we just need to be honest with ourselves about what's going on. It's worth mentioning that these girls fell, but even if they hadn't they wouldn't have been the leaders in execution. It's a myth that these girls would be the strongest if their difficulties were higher, as they're in the same positions or even lower. Pretty doesn't necessarily equal well executed, as much as sometimes I wish it did.

Inside Gymnastics

Other surprises included Raisman placing 12th amongst vaulters. (Maroney, not surprisingly, placed 1st), Jordyn Wieber placing higher than Anna Li on bars and Gabby placing 3rd on floor. You may not like her music, but you can't argue that she performs it well.

So difficulty aside, who would I name to my team? (Execution based ranks are in parentheses)

VT: Wieber (3), Ross (2), Maroney (1)
UB: Wieber (3), Ross (2), Douglas (1)
BB: Wieber (4), Raisman (3), Ross (1)
FX: Douglas (3), Raisman (2), Wieber (1)
Alt: Price, Sacramone, Finnegan

Who takes the 5th Spot? (Based on season averages)

It's arguable, but I personally believe that 4 of the American gymnasts have a 75% or greater shot of making the team. The three semi locks are Jordyn Wieber, Aly Raisman and Gabby Douglas. I personally believe that Kyla Ross will take the fourth spot. So that leaves the every popular question: Who takes the fifth spot?

To answer that question, I found the season averages on each event from everyone headed to Trials. To be fair, season averages may not be the best judge of who will perform the best, but I figured it would be a decent baseline. Falls ARE included in the average, so this is not an average of only hit routines. They're rounded to the hundredth's place.

The cool thing about this 4 person team is that if need be, these 4 girls could fill the 3 up, 3 count quota on each event. Here's how I'd do it.

VT : Wieber (15.85), Raisman (15.58), Douglas (15.24)
UB : Douglas (15.55), Ross (15.28), Wieber (14.85)
BB :  Ross (15.1), Raisman (15.03), Wieber (14.85)
FX : Raisman (15.34), Wieber (15.08), Douglas (14.97)

So to figure out which gymnast would fill the fifth spot, I figured out who would add the largest advantage by adding their routines instead of the lowest scoring routine(s) in the lineup above.

To my surprise, the girl who would add the largest advantage was McKayla Maroney who would increase the team average .84 if she vaulted instead of Douglas. Marta's openly said that she doesn't want to take a girl who can only help on one event, but McKayla's average is by far the most helpful to team USA.

Second is Alicia Sacramone whose average is higher than both Douglas on Vault and surprisingly, Jordyn Wieber on beam. (Jordyn's Pac Rim EF fall IS factored into this average though.) Her advantage is .53.

Elizabeth Price's was the third most helpful with her vault average adding .45 to the team total.

I was surprised that my most recent pick for #5, Sarah Finnegan's beam routine was the only helpful one (w/ a .21 advantage) and that her floor average wasn't higher than Raisman's, Douglas's or Wieber's.  Her individual floor scores have been higher than some of Gabby's though.

Bridget Sloan, Anna Li and Rebecca Bross each could help the team solely on bars, but because they've each had their share of mistakes their advantages each only average out to less than .2.

Kennedy, Sabrina, Nastia and Brenna don't have higher averages on any event than the already chosen four.

Obviously, season averages are not the end all be all of a selection process, but they do take into account both consistency and scoring potential. Who knows, Nastia, Becca or Anna could blow all of these girls out of the water at Trials, or perhaps one of my "Chosen Four" could seem unprepared for Olympic aspirations. *Knock on wood*. But, I thought it was a start to see who will take what I view as the last spot on the team.

**Pictures are all property of the USOC

Quick Nationals Wrap Up

Annnnd, it's over. Dozens of athletes have competed, National Champions have been named and 15 girls have been sent to Trials.

To be brief, here were my thoughts on the seniors:

To be not as brief, I would say that the biggest surprise amongst the competitors was most likely Gabby, who only missed the title by .2. That's pretty impressive for someone who "ended her career" at last year's Nationals. Had she not fallen on beam, she undoubtedly would have won.

The top 4 were in the order I predicted, but I was surprised at how close they came. I'm keeping my team the same as I had them after Classics (they're the girls circled in Purple), with the same alternates I picked then as well (underlined in Yellow). I'd like to see Alicia & Bridget make the team, but I'm not sure how feasible that really is.

I'm doubting the chances of Brenna Dowell at this point because she still has a broken hand. To be honest, I feel like all that making trials really means for her is that she'll spend two more weeks training and competing with an injury.

Anna Li's a fabulous gymnast but I personally feel like she performed more successfully in NCAA... but this is gymnastics. Anything can happen.

And I'm pretty sure I've said my peace on Nastia, but I'll leave you with this...

I'll post later with my thoughts on specific routines/juniors.

Brenna Dowell breaks hand

Property of John Cheng

Okay, so I'm starting to like lose my mind due to lack of sleep, so please excuse any typos in here.

So, Brenna Dowell was originally on the rotation schedule today but mysteriously disappeared. I said "I sure hope that she didn't break." Guess what? She did.

I'm not sure how or when, but Brenna Dowell is suffering from a fracture in her hand. Sad, right? As of Wednesday, the Dragon Gymnastics Facebook page was wishing Brenna (and the other girls) good luck this weekend and she trained in yesterday's morning session. It seems like it must have happened last night.

No word as if she'll be back for Championships or not. I'll let you all know if I find out.

If you're not too familiar with her, Brenna has like, the prettiest tumbling ever. Seriously.

Congrats Class of 2014! :D

Lots of college commits lately! I'd like to say congrats to all of the girls who have committed and take a closer look at the top 6 ranked teams!


1. Florida

Property of Kennedy Baker

Kennedy Baker - Texas Dreams
As 2 time US National Team Member and 2009 Jr. Bars Champ, Kennedy is possibly one of the most underrated gymnasts in the country. I'm interested to see a "Gator Chomp" in her floor routines, which have been notoriously unique.

Ericha Fassbender - Stars
Ericha was a member of the 2010 US National Team and competed at Top Gym there earning 4th place all around. Ericha has clean lines on bars and big skills on beam.

Grace McLaughlin - WOGA

Grace, who was Chellsie Memmel's replacement on the 2011 Pan American Games team and has had a decent Elite career overall. Like many of the other girls, she's had strong execution with not as strong difficulty. Her lines on bars are strong and has pretty skills on beam. 

2.Oklahoma
Stefani Catour  - Desert Lights
Stefani qualified to US Championships in 2010 and was named to the National Team Training squad in 2009. Stefani has very pretty floor and beam routines but struggles on bars, particularly in hitting handstands.


3. UCLA
If Miss Val's recruited any of these girls, she's keeping it well under wraps. I haven't been able to find anyone committed to UCLA for the 2013-2014 Season.

4. Alabama

Property of Ryan Schulz 

Mack Brannan - Capital 
The victim of Tim Dagget's unintentional creepiness, Mackenzie has phenomenal lines on bars and beautiful tumbling on floor. Although she's never had the most difficult routines her gorgeous gymnastics is likely to earn her college acclaim.

Kiana Winston - Texas Dreams
Kiana is the definition of a power gymnast, except her bars don't suck. She's got huge skills on beam and is solid on all four events. I can't wait to see her compete for Bama, where I feel like she fits well.

Aja-Monet Sims - Brandy Johnson
Aja-Monet Sims is one of those elites not a lot of people know about. She wasn't shown on TV at the 2012 Classics, but her bars totally stood out. That Wieler-Comaneci combo of her's is worth remembering.



5. Nebraska
Kamerin Moore - Geddert's Twistars 

Property of Kamerin Moore 

Many people remember Kami as the "girl with glasses" who competed alongside Jordyn Wieber in her junior years. That "little girl" now has contacts, has overcome a whole host of health issues, and is kicking ass in Level 10. She's fairly strong all around and will be a force to be reckoned with as long as her body doesn't rebel against her.

Grace Williams - Geddert's Twistars 
Grace, 2011 Nastia Liukin Cup Champion, 2012 Bronze Medalist and former Elite has a fabulous floor and beam set. She's looked like a college gymnast since she made it big on the gymnastics scene and could be a standout for Nebraska.

6. Georgia
Brianna Brown - Cincinnati Gymnastics

Property of CGA

Pretty, pretty, pretty gymnastics from this one. She's got pretty bars, a decent beam and a fun floor. Like Brannan, she's never had the most difficult routines, but she's got strong execution.

Chanen Raygoza - Wildfire Gymnastics 
She was one of the ninety-hundred-million Jr. Intl Elites from GymMax in 2009, she qualified to Nationals in 2010 and then decided to compete Level 10 in 2011. She's a pretty dancer and has All Around potential.

Uncommited Big Names

Gabrielle Douglas - Chow's 

Most likely, she hasn't gone pro, and in my opinion should head to UCLA stat.

Napualani Hall - KGDC 
Who as of September was looking into all of the top 6 schools with the exception of Georgia. I'm hoping to see her at Utah.

Brenna Dowell - GAGE 
I'd bet money that Al Fong is wanting this National Team Member to wait until after the Olympics to go on college visits. I could see her at Oklahoma with former teammate Rebecca Clark.

Elizabeth Price - Parkettes 
Fabulous on Bars, yet still super powerful. I could see her at Florida, UCLA or Bama. I have heard that she'd love to go to Stanford, though.

Lauren Marinez - Orlando Metro 
Lauren placed 4th on beam at last year's nationals and could end up at Georgia (with former gym mate Shayla Worley), or somewhere less prominent like Missouri, Michigan or even Denver.

(Can anyone confirm one way or another if Vega & Maroney are pro?)

Top Gym 2011 - Why I think Ohashi will be left off the roster

Honestly, Top Gym is one of my favorite meets of the year. Anyone who knows me around the boards knows that I'm a huge fan of Junior Gymnastics.

Top Gym consists of 2 gymnasts per country with a team final that I don't really understand, an all around competition and event finals. This year, it will take place from Nov. 25th-27th.

In addition to the US, they're expecting gymnasts from Russia, Romania, Canada, Great Britain and a variety of other countries.

The question on everyone's mind is: "Who will Marta send?"
I might be in the minority as I'm thinking that Ohashi will not go to Belgium. Don't get me wrong, Ohashi's fabulous but, if I were Marta, I'd be more worried about 2012 than 2016, or even 2013.

Also, Marta's made a habit of sending national team members with the same coach on international assignments together. Fassbender & Guerra of Stars and Wieber & Moore of Twistars were both sent to Top Gym together, and Marta sent CGA and WOGA pairs out internationally to other competitions in the past year.

That's why, depending on health, I think that Marta has 2 solid choices for Top Gym:

(Property of Examiner.net)

(Property of Emer Hults) 

All four gymnasts: Brenna Dowell & Sarah Finnegan (Left Pic) Kiana Winston & Kennedy Baker (Right Pic) were born in 1996 and are age eligible for 2012. Brenna Dowell and Sarah Finnegan are coached by Al & Armine Fong at GAGE. They both competed in last year's Pan Am Championships where Sarah won the Bronze on Beam. Kiana Winston & Kennedy Baker are newer to the scene, and are coached by Kim Zmeskal & Chris Burdette at Texas Dreams. Although they haven't competed internationally, They've both been impressive for years and in my opinion, this would be the perfect experience for the two of them to prove how great they can be. 

Who knows? I could be wrong. Marta could send Katelyn Ohashi & Kyla Ross. Who do you think she'll send? 

If you're a member of IGF, you can talk about Top Gym here.

Here is the list of competitors from "The All Around" as Teo posted on IGF:

Russia:Yulia Chemareva & Evguenia Shelgunova

Hungary: Dorina Jelencsics & Borbala Nardai

South-Africa: Tylah Lotter & Ryan Bloy

Italy : Carlotta Necchi & Giulia Gemme

Netherlands: Maartje Ruikes & Elise Bats

GBR: Georgina Hockenull & Sarah Strawbridge

Canada:Tara Mauchell & Briannah Tsang & Sydney Soloski & Maddie Copiack & Shallon Olsen & Maegan Chant.

Belgium: Ellen Rabout & Berangere Fransolet & Laura Waem & Jitske De Herdt & Amalia Heine & Lia Baudet.

Romania: Bianca Ciobanu, Paula Tudorache and Andreea Munteanu